Dealing with Uncertianities in implementing Intelligent Speed Adaptation(ISA) -An Adaptive Poilcymaking Approach

The road transportation system on one side provides base for the development of economical and social systems but on the other side it leads to the deaths, injuries and monetary losses due to accidents on the road.   Development of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems [ADAS], which is a combination of electronic systems and communication technology to support the driver is considered to have positive effects on the safety of the road transportation system. Intelligent Speed Adaptation [ISA] – one of the promising branch of ADAS due to its positive impacts on reduction of accidents due to speed. The implementation of ISA would have its impact on the transportation [physical] system but at the same time it would also have its effect on socio-economic system. This makes the implementation of ISA complex and dynamic.  Also as ISA is a new technology, not much is know about its large scale implementation in real world, making the implementation process more complex. Because of this the valuation of outcomes by the actors involved in process and stakeholders affected by implementing ISA is unknown.

Looking at the above scenario from the public policymaking view it is important to deal with uncertainties surrounding the implementation of ISA as a policy option with an aim to reduce accidents on the road. The focus of this research is based on developing policies that would deal with uncertainties in implementing ISA in the existing transportation system. The traditional approach to deal with uncertainties in policymaking is using scenarios, which has its drawbacks. Hence a systematic way of dealing with uncertainties is adopted in which the part of the policy is implemented now and later part of the policy is implemented as and when the related information is collected.  The suggested policy making approach is called Adaptive policymaking approach.

The policymaking approach starts with setting the objective [reduction in accidents], constraints, policy option [ISA] and definition of success. In the next step the policy option identified is specified for implementation and related necessary conditions of success and their indicators are identified considering the definition of success. The vulnerabilities related to these necessary conditions are identified and relative policy actions are taken which are to be implemented now as per the level of vulnerability.  Then the signposts are identified considering the necessary conditions and the vulnerabilities.  The signposts are the essence of adaptive policy. They are the monitoring systems and information has to be collected related to each signposts. During implementation any change in signpost information would trigger the implementation of policy action/s which will protect the basic policy and ensure the smooth operation of the system in direction of attaining the objective. The policies devised by this approach are not optimal but are robust across the range of plausible scenario.  Change in the policy is identified before according to the change in signpost level and hence any response to the change is not based on ad hoc bases but the policy action/s implemented is/are a part of the whole systematic process of adaptive policymaking.

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