Introduction (Part 2) 

Main Research Question

The scope of the following study is the identification of possible strategies that permit the government of Azag Strip to exercise control on the use of land and water resource so as to improve the living conditions of their citizens. The quality of the water is of great concern in these policies as its deterioration could affect directly the citizens’ lives and could provoke a change in the use of the ground water.

In order to achieve an insight that permits to obtain the necessary understanding of Azag Strip problem the following sub-questions will need to be answered for a long term.

  • How is the growth of the population on the next years going to be and how it could affect the use of land and water resources?
  • What is the actual situation of the water system of Azag Strip. How the main resource of water is managed now and will be managed up to 2025?
  • Is the groundwater quality been affected by the seepage water from domestic cesspits and from water used for irrigating agricultural land?
  • Does the quality of groundwater will affect the population in future because of increase in Nitrate level?
  • Can the government count on the groundwater as a water source for covering the expected demand for domestic, industrial and agricultural use, as consequence of it’s Deepings level and reduction of amount?
  • How is the increasing of Azag Strip Population affecting the use of land? Does this changes affect the use of water?


Research Methodology

While we have defined the problem of Azag Strip, we have found it very complex and dynamic. There are many parts of the real world of the country that are interrelated among each other; as the population, the land use, the water resources, water demand and supply, water quality, which makes it very difficult to understand and to analyze by using traditional methods for solving problems. It’s because they provided insufficient understanding of the strategic processes involved in complex systems. This is the main reason why we will use Systems Dynamics, which “is a method for qualitative description, exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of the processes, information, organizational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates quantitative modeling and analysis for the design of system structure and control” (Wolstenholme, 1989).

The reason why Systems Dynamics has been chosen will be explained below.

  • We have found that all the parts of the real world of Azag Strip are interrelated among each other and that it’s possible to establish these interrelations by using a causal diagram which is very easy then to transfer it into a System Dynamics model. In where we will identify some feedback loops.
  • We believe that the system behavior patterns are more important than the exact values they could reach in the future. This provide valuable information  of the understanding of the system and can permit us identify the strategies to improve the actual performance of the system
  • We understand that the whole system changes as a function of time. One important characteristic of system dynamics model is that it could illustrate the future changes of the system based on historical data.  Most of them have a known tendency along the time that could be useful for understanding how the system behavior will work in the future.
  • An important reason is that the system described in this case can be considered as continuous. This means that the model indicated will describe the system behavior in terms of gradual (continuous) changes.
  • This study is been required to be done for a long term period. Systems dynamics permits modulation of this system. If this would not be the case, then software developed for this case will take too much time and probably not much understanding can be generated for the case.
  • There is been necessity to adopt some assumptions for the future that are very easy to identify in a System Dynamics model, while in other cases, it would be difficult to do.
     
 

 

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