Scenario Analysis 

UNCERTAINTIES

The uncertainty level of each factor differs. And so they have different influence level to how the uncertainty affectts the outcomes of interests. It is know from the literature that most of the uncertainties usually faced by the outcomes of interests are due to the uncertainties of external factors. In this study we will consider only external factors to define the most influential uncertain factors. Though external factors are uncertain but they also differ in the level of their uncertainty. Thus there are some that are more uncertain and others are fairly certain. And their impacts also differ from low impact to high impact. In building the scenario the study will consider those factors with high impact for both uncertain.

The uncertainties of the outcomes of interests depend on the uncertainty of the external variables. In this study we consider the relation through the causal diagram. The study consider the influence of the following factors:

  • Economic development of the two cities and even the Netherlands as whole is too uncertain. This is because the economic development depends on the direction and the movement of the world. Various factors that affect the economy such as war, world markets are uncertain. Thus make the economic development to be uncertain. Because of this uncertainty the future state of congestion across the A13 highway is also uncertain.
  • The population growth in the two cities is also uncertain. Birth rate and death rate can be fairly certain. But the migration of people from other cities to these cities or even from other countries is very uncertain as depends from many other uncertain factors such as economic development. This makes the population growth to be uncertain. Since population influence the congestion across the A13 highway this makes the congestion also to be uncertain.
  • Fuel price is very uncertain to these cities. This is because it is not produced in these cities and so the price policy is beyond their control. But the fuel price affects much the congestion problem as provide the ability for population to decide to drive or not. Hence the uncertainty also makes the congestion to be uncertain.
  • The car price is not much uncertain and thus is fairly certain. This due to oligopoly effect that still exists in the car industries. Thus it can somehow be predicted. It is true the change of the price affect the congestion problem. So the future of the car price is not that much certain but is fairly certain and hence the certainty of the congestion due to the car price is not much.
  • The technological development is certain. However much have been done and thus the changes are not much uncertain rather fairly certain. The advancement of the technology will influence the capacity of public transport and this will have influence to the congestion


Importance of uncertainties

The importance of the factor uncertainty depend to how much impact it make if the uncertainty happen. The study categorizes the importance depending to how the factors’ uncertainty impacts and their level of uncertainty. Figure below shows the importance and impact of uncertainty  (scenario analysis).
   

           Scenario analysis diagram

1. Economic development     2. Population     3.Fuel price     4.Car price     5.Technological advancement


To deal with these uncertainties scenarios are developed. The scenarios were developed depending on the uncertainties and impact it might make. From figure above it is clear that Economic development, Population and the Fuel Price are the most uncertain factor and would have high impact on the system.  From this the study developed eight different kinds of scenarios, which are shown in the table below.

Scenario Economic Development Population Fuel price
1 + + +
2 + + -
3 + - +
4 + - -
5 - + +
6 - + -
7 - - +
8 - - -

                                                                                       Dimension of Scenarios

Scenarios are developed for all the eight possible combinations. A sample is shown of scenario 1 is presented below.

    Trend breaking Scenario
    
Main Characteristics:             Increase in the Economic development
                                                       Decrease in the Population
                                                       Increase in fuel price

In 2050 the economy of the Netherlands have almost doubled and the average income has increased. Due to this development more money would be invested in infrastructure. The HSL (high speed lines), the monorail, increase in the road network, etc. would be developed. Different mode of freight transport would be used to transfer the goods from one place to other. This would lead to the decrease in the congestion on the road as the new infrastructure provide the means to better public transport systems and saving on time and money. 
Decrease in population due to the policy changes in the immigration and emigration rules, which in turn would leads to less demand in mobility. Train will be less full during the peak hour and everybody could have a seat in the train. There is also increase in fuel price due to the oil reserves getting diminished, which would make car use to be more expensive. Higher fuel price would create psychological barrier for people to use/have cars. It also supported with the increase in economic development where usually the government will impose higher tax (on everything). People do have the money, but the government would make it so expensive to use the car.
In the end, the result is the congestion in A13 Highway will be less.

                                                                                                            
These scenarios are quantified, which would  help to reveal  the detail picture or idea about the possible future. These variables are called the scenario variables and are used as inputs in model to estimate the impact of policy changes. The outcomes would help us to study the expected change in the system like what are the implications of the changes in system and on the outcomes of interests and are these outcomes of interests acceptable or unacceptable.

The performance of different strategies developed in previous steps can be analysed for each scenario using the scorecard., considering the criteria which is required to be attained.
 

 

 

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